The BJP led National democratic alliance looks to be clearly in a commanding position to form the government yet again at the center. As per the exit polls NDA is clearly in a dominating position with predictions clearly stating that NDA will romp home with an absolute majority of 310 to 340 seats in total out of 543.
Last month has been really very important with reference to the future of India at large. The country went to polls with a lot of high voltage sloganeering & rallies by both the ruling party & the opposition so as to win & form the government in the world’s largest democracy here in India. Last five years have seen its highs & lows. One country one tax initiative made the process of tax collection & tax calculation simple for both the consumers & officials at large. India in the last five years have taken a real aggressive stance against terrorism and have conducted surgical strikes on terrorist camps and eliminating a lot of them in the process. National security has been of prime importance since the last 5 years. Most notable achievement was the remarkable rise in foreign flows especially foreign direct investment (FDI). India made a tremendous progress. India was considered among the fragile five among emerging markets but now India is the top investment destination with a ratings upgrade from Moody’s investor services last year.
Also the government has tried to revive the investment by easing business regulation. The headline shows a spectacular rise of India in the ease of doing business rankings in 2018. Moreover this rise has been possible due to both methodological changes & by varied domestic initiatives.
Also there have been a lot of initiatives done to control inflation to a great extent. The YOY inflation rate growth has been negative and the mean inflation rate lies less than 4% which is a good indicator.
India is a country with population of 1.3Bn people coming from all strata of society and having a varied lifestyle in general. It is arguably the largest successful democracies in the world. The Indian parliamentary elections are conducted in 7 phases. With the last phase finally being completed, India awaits its next PM which would be declared on 23rd May 2019. Let’s analyze the numbers based on observation & analysis.
Main challenge faced by the ruling NDA government was the Anti- incumbency factor creeping up due to some policy decisions like demonetization and the recent losses in the assembly polls of the states of Rajasthan, MP & Punjab in general. But a tough stance of terrorism and towards the terrorist followed by some tough actions has created a wave of real hope and it so seems that it is leading to a pro-incumbency factor in favor of the NDA government. The Hindi heartland(is basically a set of 11 indian states where Hindi is being predominantly spoken and situated in the north of the country) seems to be in the favor of the nationalistic BJP led NDA government with over 75% of the votes going down strongly in favor of the BJP led NDA, whereas the Congress led UPA will only be able to manage up-to 17% of the total votes in the Hindi heartland. In 2014 the BJP led NDA had a resounding success in these regions commanding over 83% votes and the congress led UPA being decimated to a mere 4% votes. It does remain certain that the congress led UPA is gaining seats but is a distant second with NDA dominating the game again this time.
Exhibit 1.1 : Performance in the Hindi heartland
|Final Results 2014||193||10||26|
|Exit polls 2019||174||39||18|
BJP dominated states like Maharashtra, Gujarat have been really stable since 2014 and does not see any change in this year too. Kerala and the southern states still will have the same results as 2014 and this year too, the vote share does not seem to change here as well. Let us have a look here at the tabulated format. But West Bengal could be game changer of sorts with the BJP led NDA seemingly certain to win 7 seats. This figure could increase up-to 14 seats and the game changer would be today’s phase 7 election in which 9 seats are up for grabs. These 9 seats are predominantly been with the Trinamool Congress (TMC) last time in 2014. We could expect a 20-30% swing this phase which could further up the ante for the BJP led NDA owing to the recent campaigns by BJP big-wigs in the state. It does seem that the NDA vote share in Bengal could increase drastically.
Exhibit 1.2 Poll Status of West Bengal & Southern States
|Final Results 2014||75||62||12|
|Exit poll 2019||38||61||49|
But as per the survey it seems certain that campaign for NDA in the south & west Bengal is weak and the Mahagathbandan could make significant inroads but the vote share for BJP will more or less be the same as in 2014.
With total of 543 seats and 272 needed to form the government The road is very clear that BJP on its own is set to have 265 seats and the allies combined will take the figure to 311 which is way above the half way mark. The UPA allies would turn out with a greater number of seats than 2014 and would qualify for the main opposition party.
Exhibit 1.3 Final Poll Comparison Results 2014 Vs Exit Polls 2019
|Final results 2014||336||60||147|
|Exit poll 2019||311||127||105|
So from the table above we do see this possibility becoming a reality that the nationalistic BJP led NDA would make a 2nd successive term this election season and the figures do represent a pessimistic approach but we do see PM Narendra Modi making a comeback strongly with even more intensity. Hence we would like to reiterate the statement that we made before, that the last phase of this election is and will be the game changer. There are chances that the NDA could go on to garner 350+ seats with BJP single handedly crossing the 300 mark with ease.